When you are asked what you are thinking about, you can normally answer. .. The distinction between fast and slow thinking has been explored by. Thinking, Fast and Slow represents an elegant summation of a lifetime of research in which Kahneman, Princeton University Profes- sor Emeritus of Psychology. Editorial Reviews. tauhobackbuti.cf Review. site Best Books of the Month, November Thinking, Fast and Slow - site edition by Daniel Kahneman .
|Language:||English, Arabic, Portuguese|
|ePub File Size:||26.31 MB|
|PDF File Size:||18.47 MB|
|Distribution:||Free* [*Sign up for free]|
PDF | Book Review. Understanding how and why we make choices is important for everybody. If you are a scientist or aspire to be one in the future. PDF | 5 minutes read | On Aug 1, , Walter Krämer and others published Kahneman, D. (): Thinking, Fast and Slow. This book still many people search although it's already published since and I still love to read Think Fast and Slow Book until today A brilliantly written.
It begins by documenting a variety of situations in which we either arrive at binary decisions or fail to precisely associate reasonable probabilities with outcomes. Kahneman explains this phenomenon using the theory of heuristics. Kahneman and Tversky originally covered this topic in their landmark article titled Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. For example, a child who has only seen shapes with straight edges would experience an octagon rather than a triangle when first viewing a circle.
In a legal metaphor, a judge limited to heuristic thinking would only be able to think of similar historical cases when presented with a new dispute, rather than seeing the unique aspects of that case. In addition to offering an explanation for the statistical problem, the theory also offers an explanation for human biases.
Anchoring Main article: Anchoring The "anchoring effect" names our tendency to be influenced by irrelevant numbers. As an example, most people, when asked whether Gandhi was more than years old when he died, will provide a much larger estimate of his age at death than others who were asked whether Gandhi was more or less than 35 years old.
Experiments show that our behavior is influenced, much more than we know or want, by the environment of the moment. Availability Main article: Availability heuristic The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events on the basis of how easy it is to think of examples.
The availability heuristic operates on the notion that, "if you can think of it, it must be important. In other words, the easier it is to recall the consequences of something, the greater we perceive these consequences to be. Sometimes, this heuristic is beneficial, but the frequencies at which events come to mind are usually not accurate reflections of the probabilities of such events in real life.
In what Kahneman calls their "best-known and most controversial" experiment, "the Linda problem ," subjects were told about an imaginary Linda, young, single, outspoken, and very bright, who, as a student, was deeply concerned with discrimination and social justice.
They asked whether it was more probable that Linda is a bank teller or that she is a bank teller and an active feminist.
The overwhelming response was that "feminist bank teller" was more likely than "bank teller," violating the laws of probability.
Every feminist bank teller is a bank teller. In this case System 1 substituted the easier question, "Is Linda a feminist? An alternative view is that the subjects added an unstated cultural implicature to the effect that the other answer implied an exclusive or xor , that Linda was not a feminist.
A natural experiment reveals the prevalence of one kind of unwarranted optimism. The planning fallacy is the tendency to overestimate benefits and underestimate costs, impelling people to take on risky projects. This theory states that when the mind makes decisions, it deals primarily with Known Knowns, phenomena it has already observed. It rarely considers Known Unknowns, phenomena that it knows to be relevant but about which it has no information.
Finally it appears oblivious to the possibility of Unknown Unknowns, unknown phenomena of unknown relevance. He explains that humans fail to take into account complexity and that their understanding of the world consists of a small and necessarily un-representative set of observations. Furthermore, the mind generally does not account for the role of chance and therefore falsely assumes that a future event will mirror a past event.
Framing Main article: Framing effect psychology Framing is the context in which choices are presented. Experiment: subjects were asked whether they would opt for surgery if the "survival" rate is 90 percent, while others were told that the mortality rate is 10 percent. See all Editorial Reviews. Product details File Size: Penguin November 3, Publication Date: November 3, Language: English ISBN Enabled X-Ray: Wall Street.
Is this feature helpful?
Thank you for your feedback. Share your thoughts with other customers.
Thinking Fast And Slow Summary
Write a customer review. Customer images. See all customer images. Read reviews that mention fast and slow daniel kahneman nobel prize make decisions must read behavioral economics system 1 and system well written thought provoking amos tversky prospect theory highly recommend remembering self mind works human behavior ever read malcolm gladwell human mind well worth regression to the mean.
Top Reviews Most recent Top Reviews. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later. Paperback Verified download. First, for reasons explained below I would not download this as an audio book.
I have mixed feelings about this book for various reasons. Later in the same chapter the author concedes that intuition adds value but only to the extent that the individual bases it off sufficient research.
To me, the way most of the book was written, especially in Parts 1 and 2, was a little over the top. The chapters are short and each one cites at least one study that the author or someone else performed.
It becomes example after example after example and redundant. The beginning chapters seem as if the author put a group of journal articles together to develop part of the book. Furthermore, the book is very interactive with the reader and some parts are a little condescending. For example, in the Introduction, the author poses a question to the reader asking whether or not a personality description means the person in question is a farmer or a librarian.
Another example in Chapter 16 assumed that the reader came up with the wrong answer and even stated that the most common answer to this question is wrong, however, the author does not explain how to come up with the correct answer.
I do have both the hard copy and the audio book and further noticed that there were a few mistakes between the hard copy and the audio.
Sometimes the mistake was quite minimal such as words were flip-flopped but at the end of Chapter 17 the author asks a question which requires some thought and work by the reader. The total in the audiobook was completely off. Instead of stating the total at 81 million as in the hard copy the audio book read it as 61 million and the Total for another part of the question in the same example was All in all, a good part of the book is intriguing.
The author clearly has conducted extensive research throughout his career and was able to present much of it in this book in a form that would be comprehensible to non-econ and non-psychology persons. site Edition Verified download.
Content is interesting, but as other reviewers point out, do not download the site version, because links often don't work, and many images and footnotes seem to be lost. As others have noted, this book is dense in places, but is tremendously important for decision making from the individual up through public policy. Even if you don't have the patience for all the chapters don't neglect the intro and conclusion.
The TL;DR doesn't suffice but. This book is in my top 10 most influential of my life; highly recommended especially in tandem with Haidt's "Righteous Mind"; these two highly complementary books form a multidimensional mirror for the human condition. Hardcover Verified download. When you come late to the party, writing the th review, you have a certain freedom to write something as much for your own use as for other readers, confident that the review will be at the bottom of the pile.
Kahneman's thesis is that the human animal is systematically illogical. Not only do we mis-assess situations, but we do so following fairly predictable patterns. Moreover, those patterns are grounded in our primate ancestry. The first observation, giving the title to the book, is that eons of natural selection gave us the ability to make a fast reaction to a novel situation. Survival depended on it.
So, if we hear an unnatural noise in the bushes, our tendency is to run.
Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman
Thinking slow, applying human logic, we might reflect that it is probably Johnny coming back from the Girl Scout camp across the river bringing cookies, and that running might not be the best idea. However, fast thinking is hardwired.
The first part of the book is dedicated to a description of the two systems, the fast and slow system. Kahneman introduces them in his first chapter as system one and system two. Chapter 2 talks about the human energy budget.
Thinking is metabolically expensive; 20 percent of our energy intake goes to the brain. Moreover, despite what your teenager tells you, dedicating energy to thinking about one thing means that energy is not available for other things.
Since slow thinking is expensive, the body is programmed to avoid it. Chapter 3 expands on this notion of the lazy controller. We don't invoke our slow thinking, system two machinery unless it is needed. It is expensive. As an example, try multiplying two two-digit numbers in your head while you are running. You will inevitably slow down. Kahneman uses the example of multiplying two digit numbers in your head quite frequently.
Most readers don't know how to do this. Check out "The Secrets of Mental Math" for techniques. Kahneman and myself being slightly older guys, we probably like to do it just to prove we still can.
Whistling past the graveyard - we know full well that mental processes slow down after Chapter 4 - the associative machine - discusses the way the brain is wired to automatically associate words with one another and concepts with one another, and a new experience with a recent experience. Think of it as the bananas vomit chapter.
Will you think of next time you see a banana? Chapter 5 - cognitive ease. We are lazy. We don't solve the right problem, we solve the easy problem. Chapter 6 - norms, surprises, and causes. A recurrent theme in the book is that although our brains do contain a statistical algorithm, it is not very accurate. It does not understand the normal distribution. We are inclined to expect more regularity than actually exists in the world, and we have poor intuition about the tail ends of the bell curve.
We have little intuition at all about non-Gaussian distributions. Chapter 7 - a machine for jumping to conclusions. He introduces a recurrent example.
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost? System one, fast thinking, leaps out with an answer which is wrong. It requires slow thinking to come up with the right answer - and the instinct to distrust your intuition. Chapter 8 - how judgments happen. Drawing parallels across domains. If Tom was as smart as he is tall, how smart would he be?
Chapter 9 - answering an easier question.
Some questions have no easy answer. Section 2 - heuristics and biases Chapter 10 - the law of small numbers. In the realm of statistics there is a law of large numbers. The larger the sample size, the more accurate the statistical inference from measuring them. Conversely, a small sample size can be quite biased. I was in a study abroad program with 10 women, three of them over six feet. Could I generalize about the women in the University of Maryland student body?
Conversely, I was the only male among 11 students and the only one over Could they generalize anything from that? In both cases, not much. Chapter 11 - anchors. A irrelevant notion is a hard thing to get rid of. For instance, the asking price of the house should have nothing to do with its value, but it does greatly influence bids.
Chapter 12 - the science of availability. If examples come easily to mind, we are more inclined to believe the statistic.
If I know somebody who got mugged last year, and you don't, my assessment of the rate of street crime will probably be too high, and yours perhaps too low. Newspaper headlines distort all of our thinking about the probabilities of things like in and terrorist attacks.
Because we read about it, it is available. Chapter 13 - availability, emotion and risk. Chapter 14 - Tom W's specialty. This is about the tendency for stereotypes to override statistics.
If half the students in the University area education majors, and only a 10th of a percent study mortuary science, the odds are overwhelming that any individual student is an education major. Nonetheless, if you ask about Tom W, a sallow gloomy type of guy, people will ignore the statistics and guess he is in mortuary science. Chapter 15 - less is more. Linda is described as a very intelligent and assertive woman.
What are the odds she is a business major? The odds that she is a feminist business major? Despite the mathematical impossibility, most people will think that the odds of the latter are greater than the former. Chapter 16 - causes trump statistics.
The most important aspect of this chapter is Bayesian analysis, which is so much second nature to Kahneman that he doesn't even describe it. The example he gives is a useful illustration.
First, to go to the point.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Given these numbers, most people will assume that the cab in the accident was blue because of the witness testimony. The problems are mathematically identical but the opinion is different. Now the surprise. Here's how we figure it out from Bayes theorem.
The chances she was right are. Recommend that you cut and paste this, because Bayes theorem is cited fairly often, and is kind of hard to understand. It may be simple for Kahneman, but it is not for his average reader, I am sure. Chapter 17 - regression to the mean. The average is only around The chances are little bit of both, and if I take a test a second time I will get a lower score, not because I am any stupider but because your first observation of me wasn't exactly accurate.
This is called regression to the mean. It is not about the things you are measuring, it is about the nature of measurement instruments. Don't mistake luck for talent. Chapter 18 - taming intuitive predictions. The probability of the occurrence of an event which depends on a number of prior events is the cumulative probability of all those prior events.
The probability of a smart grade school kid becoming a Rhodes scholar is a cumulative probability of passing a whole series of hurdles: The message in this chapter is that we tend to overestimate our ability to project the future. Part three - overconfidence Chapter 19 - the illusion of understanding.
We make judgments on the basis of the knowledge we have, and we are overconfident about the predictive value of that observation. To repeat their example, we see the tremendous success of Google.Thank you for your feedback.
By exceeding the goal, you are achieving a gain. Another example is that the value people place on a change in probability e. Here System 1 is finding spurious causal connections between events, too ready to jump to conclusions that make logical sense.
Drawing on decades of research in psychology that resulted in a Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on an exploration of what influences thought example by example, sometimes with unlikely word pairs like "vomit and banana. Likewise, mathematical algorithms for predicting college success are as least as successful, and much cheaper, than long interviews with placement specialists.